MindGames, Inc. v. Western Publishing Co.
Facts
MindGames licensed its adult board game, "Clever Endeavor," to Western under a contract requiring Western to pay a 15 percent royalty on games sold. The contract lasted through January 31, 1993, and gave Western a contractual right to renew if it paid at least $1.5 million in royalties or otherwise before then, with later renewals requiring a $300,000 annual fee. Western paid only $600,000 during the first year, sales later declined sharply, yet the parties continued dealing through January 31, 1994 without Western making the payment required to exercise the contractual renewal option. MindGames sued for the unpaid renewal-related amounts and about $40 million in lost royalties, alleging Western failed to perform promotional obligations under the contract.
Issue
Whether MindGames was entitled to recover renewal fees when Western continued the relationship without satisfying the contract's renewal-payment condition, and whether MindGames could recover claimed lost royalties for Western's alleged failure to promote the game. Also, in resolving the damages question under Arkansas law, whether a categorical "new business" rule barred recovery or whether the claim failed because the proof of lost royalties was too speculative.
Rule
A contractual right conditioned on the occurrence of a specified event is not enforceable unless the condition occurs, unless noncompliance is excused by agreement or operation of law. In federal court applying state law, the court must predict how the state's highest court would decide the issue and need not follow an old state precedent if the best prediction is that the state court would not. Under Arkansas law as predicted by the Seventh Circuit here, lost profits or royalties are not barred simply because the claimant or venture is "new"; instead, such damages are recoverable only if proved with reasonable certainty and not based on excessive speculation.
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If Armitage sues for the $400,000 renewal payment, what is the most likely result?